With 26 games left in the regular season, Brad Lidge is only 4 meltdowns away from tying the MLB single-season record of 14 blown-saves, a dubious distinction currently held by a quartet of relievers, two of which are Hall of Famers - Rollie Fingers, Bruce Sutter, Bob Stanley and Ron Davis. And indeed it looked like Lidge was on pace to narrow the gap again last night, when he loaded the bases and appeared to be on the verge of blowing his 11th save of the season.
But Charlie Manuel finally decided to yank his erratic closer.
Manuel said, "...I didn't have a very good feel about the game, and I made up mind I wanted to try Madson." So Charlie replaced Lidge with last year's "Bridge to Lidge", a risky move considering that Madson has had problems in the closer's role - coming into last night's game, Madson had blown more saves (5) than he'd converted (4). But Madson got the job done. He preserved the Phillies' two run lead and prevented the slumping NL East leaders from losing their fifth straight game.
So what does this mean for Lidge? Are we moving to a closer-by-committee scenario? And how does this all effect the Phillies' World Series aspirations? I decided to take a look at each championship team since 2000 and evaluate their Closers. There was some encouraging information there, for example. . .
Of the 8 Championship teams in the 2000's, four of them had 5 or more blown saves in the regular season, and two of those teams had at least 10 blown saves ('06 Cardinals, '03 Marlins). In fact, each World Series winner from 2003 - 2006 had at least 5 blown saves.
Also, half of the championship teams relied on unproven closers for the World Series. Here are the stories:
2006 Cardinals: Jason Isringhausen was the team's closer for the regular season. Isringhausen recorded 33 saves and 10 blown saves before getting sidelined by injury. Adam Wainwright took over for Isringhausen, and the rest is history. Wainwright, MLB's current wins leaders, had 4 postseason saves and allowed 0.00 earned runs over 9.2 innings of work.
2005 White Sox: Dustin Hermanson was the closer for the majority of the regular season when the south siders won the World Series. Hermanson had 34 saves, 5 blown saves, 5 holds and an ERA of 2.04. He then got injured and lost his job to Bobby Jenks, and Jenks did a great job in the postseason - 4 saves, 1 blown save and a 2.25 ERA.
2003 Florida Marlins: The regular season closer was Braden Looper. Looper had 28 saves and 8 blown saves before losing the job to Ugueth Urbina. Urbina wasn't perfect in the postseason - Despite blowing 2 saves, he converted 4 other saves and helped the Marlins to a World Series championship.
2001 Arizona Diamondbacks: Byung-Hyun was the team's closer. He had 19 regular season saves, but after blowing 2 save chances in the World Series, the Diamondbacks called on Randy Johnson in Game 7 - one night after picthing 7 innings in a Game 6 victory - to keep their championship hopes alive. Johnson came on in the top of the 8th with Diamondbacks trailing 2-1. He flyballed Knoblauch and retired the side. Then he came out again and retired the side 1-2-3 in the top of the ninth, setting the stage for Arizona's stunning 9th inning victory. Granted it wasn't a save situation, but it was the most important relief appearance of the year. Johnson got the win. Kim watched from the bench.
What does all this mean for the Phillies? It means that there is no precedent in place dictating that you have to have a perfect closer to win championships. Teams have won with patchwork approaches before, so if the Phillies have to run a mixture of Lidge, Madson, Meyers, Martinez and Moyer, so be it. Crazier things have happened. But what hasn't happened is this: No team in the last decade has made it to the playoffs with a closer whose ERA is above 4.00. Lidge's ERA is currently 7.15. And, when you combine his numbers with Madson's, the result is scary - 5.15 ERA and 15 Blown Saves. I can't say for certain, but I'm willing to bet that no team in MLB history has ever won a championship with those numbers.
First things first, though. The Phillies still need to need to make the playoffs, and things are looking grim. They've just been swept by the Astros and only scored a total of 3 runs in a 3 game series against the Giants. The offense needs to come alive, otherwise all this postseason bullpen talk will just be a giant waste of time.
Brad Lidge was a head case in Houston, that's how your Phils ended up with him. He was also nasty for his first few years before he lost it. You have now experienced that exact experience arc. I could've told you it was gonna happen. You did get a WS win out of him, so I guess it's all profit from here...
ReplyDeleteRelievers catch fire in the playoffs, or they don't. It's such a small sample that guys like Jenks emerge unpredictably. But having watched it up close, I'm guessing Lidge's gas can pitching will continue. When he gets in his own head, it takes a move to a different city for him to shake it.
You're right, Ted. Lidge is a total headcase and it's doubtful that Rich Dubee - the Phillies "pitcher whisperer" - will be able to get him back on track.
ReplyDeleteThe WS cemented Lidge as a fan favorite and he will always be a hero in Philadelphia. But like Manuel said the other night, you can't always listen to your heart when you wanna win games. Will Madson or Meyers catch fire? I hope so, but they need to make the playoffs first.
BTW, your misplaced fan article was great. It's hard enough living in a different city, but living in a different country - where the don't cover any baseball (or American football) - really tests your loyalty. I responded with this blog because it forces me to stay on top of things.