Phillies Postseason Rotation: Much has been written about the Phillies postseason pitching rotation. Everyone seems to have an opinion on who should pitch where (and when), so I thought I'd weigh in as well.
First, let it be known that the Phillies have one of the best starting pitching staffs of any team poised to make a run in October. They don't have the best rotation - that belongs to Boston - but they're damn close. A recent ESPN poll asked a collection of MLB scouts and execs to rank potential pitching staffs, and the Phillies came in 3rd behind Boston and St. Louis. I can accept being behind Boston because of the depth they have a pitching, but I call BS on St. Louis being ranked second. Yes Wainwright and Carpenter are both viable Cy Young contenders, but after that there's a significant drop off in the 3 and 4 slots. I understand the argument that you can win by running your top 2 out there as often as possible (witness Phillies post-season run 2008), but I don't think that's going to get it done this year.
The playoff teams in the NL have bigger bats this year, better lineups. On any night the Phils, Dodgers and Cards can put up anywhere from 5 -10 runs, no matter who's pitching. Just listen to the names of guys who will likely be stepping up to the plate in a couple weeks: Howard, Pujols, Manny, Holliday, Ethier, Kent, Utley, etc. These are big name players who like the playing in the spotlight. They aren't gonna let anyone - Cy Young credentials or not - intimidate them. So no, this fall won't be like the past two - no team is going to run in and sweep/semi sweep its way to the World Series. The lineups are too good, and the pitching is too good. These will be long series, and in long series you need depth. And, as crazy as it might sound, the Phillies have depth.
Pitching depth was a question mark for the Phils at the beginning of the season, but they answered those questions with Cliff Lee and Pedro. Whereas as most teams are trying to scrap together their number 4 starter, the Phils suffer a burden of riches. They have too many arms and can't decide who deserves a shot at October glory. Between Lee, Hamels, Blanton, Happ and Pedro, the Phillies have five quality arms that can go out and shut down any team in baseball. So what would you do?
Here's the rotation I would run with: Hamels, Lee, Blanton, Martinez.
The reasoning:
#1: Hamels is my ace in October for three reasons: 1.) He's got ice in his veins when it comes to big games (proven last year). 2.) He doesn't like pitching on short rest, so send him out first and let him recover in case you need him again. 3.) He's finally at full strength again, and his numbers this month are great. He's 3-1 with a 2.45 ERA and 35 K's. The changeup is looking lethal.
#2: Lee is the number 2. Most people would argue he's the ace and should get the game 1 start, but I think differently for 2 reasons: 1.) He's never pitched in the playoffs. 2.) He's been shaky lately - he's given up 5 or more runs in 4 of his last 6 starts (the other two games he gave up 1 run and struck out 11). So whereas Hamels is getting increasingly more consistent, Lee is teetering. But he's still the guy who showed up and went 5-0 with a 0.68 ERA. I think he thrives on the big stage as well, but still I go with Hamels for game 1.
#3: Blanton has been quietly impressive all season long (11-7, 3.82 ERA, 156 K's). And he's right handed. I like the Lefty, Lefty, Righty approach. Here's something to consider about Big Joe: He's rattled off 13 quality starts in his last 14 outings. Talk about consistency. All he needs is some run support, and, as mentioned above, the phils should be able to capitalize on any other team's weak #3 pitcher. This could be a win for the Phils in every series.
#4: Pedro Martinez. The old goat. The man who loves the big stage more than anyone on this team. The man with the amazing postseason credentials (6-2, 3.40 ERA, 80 K's). Three time Cy Young award winner. World Series champion. Smart competitor with balls of steel. These are some of the reasons I start Pedro over Happ. But not all of them. . .
Happ for Closer? How about, given the problems the back end of the bullpen has had, we move J.A. HAPP to the Closer role? Happ has been brilliant this season and could very well win the Rookie Of The Year award, but I want him coming out of the bullpen this fall. Pedro is a good option for this as well, but Pedro is old and could have serious trouble pitching on back to back nights. Plus, Pedro has trouble in the first inning and takes some time to settle down. You can't have that in a closer. You might bring up lack of experience as something working against Happ, but from what I've seen, the kid has brass balls and doesn't get rattled too easily. And there is precedent for this type of move: Adam Wainwright, now Cy Young contender, was moved into the closer role in place of Jason Isringhausen for the Cards' 2006 World Series championship run. There are differences (Wainwright had spent the year as a middle reliever) but point is you can make a young stud your closer and still win the ring.
Only time will tell what Charlie has up his sleeve. Needless to say, I can't wait to see.
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